2000 Fall Kickoff
Morning Talk:
Recent Trends in Cancer Mortality
Abstract
We are beset by alarming stories about growing risks of cancer -- from our food, electric power lines, radon in basements, automotive exhaust, and countless other things. At the same time, we are subjected to a constant stream of messages about wonderful progress in cancer research, with marvelous new treatments now, and more to come. Can both be true? In fact, overall cancer mortality has changed little in recent years, though some specific kinds of cancer have gone up and others have gone down. The problem now is to determine which of these changes is from a shift in the risk of getting cancer, which from the benefits of earlier detection, which from better treatment, which (possibly) from other things. Clear understanding of these matters will help in devising more effective means to deal with the cancer problem. This is inherently a problem at the boundary between statistics and medicine, and illustrates the kinds of things that need careful, informed statistical analysis.